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Books written by Ray Sullivan

Thursday 31 January 2013

Amazon - profits down, eBooks up

Amazon, the biggest online retailer of them all, has just announced a dramatic drop in profits, down by $80 million for the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier.   It's not for want of trying, though, as they increased their revenues from around $17.5 billion in that quarter a year ago to more than $21 billion this time around, a rise in trading of around 22%.  Jeff Bezos needn't panic, his profits were still nearly $100 million for the three months leading up to Christmas.

 However, this means Amazon are cutting margins aggressively, which given the current market conditions isn't unusual.  And let's face it, $100 million profit in a quarter isn't to be sniffed at.

Jeff has pointed out that one area that is in decline for his business is print books. To be fair, the decline is in the rate of increase - they grew  by 5% in December, which is the slowest growth rate in Amazon's 17 years as a book seller.  In contrast eBooks are growing like mad, up 70% or so on the same quarter the year before.  As Jeff points out, the eBook business has grown from nothing five years ago to a multi billion dollar category for Amazon.

So, with profits like this in such a tough trading environment being relatively buoyant, it should be no surprise that the market reacted positively to Amazon's announcement - I'm guessing the markets have noticed a little bit of tough trading conditions generally.

Jeff was certainly smart enough to realise that eBooks were ripe for the consumer market five years ago - up until then they had been quite niche and the almost blanket avoidance by the mainstream publishing industry helped to keep them that way.  But Jeff helped to take eBooks out of the shadows and into the spotlight, realising that for a major bookseller it is a heck of a sight cheaper to stock millions of electronic book files compared to the miles of racking needed to maintain stocks of physical books.  That and his move into Print on Demand stands to reduce his physical inventory, hence his real estate costs, big time, long term.

So Amazon have helped to create the eBook model that is driving us all forward right now.  They have also realised a long time now that volume sales of any given book isn't necessary as long as they have the lion's share of all the sales - they've eliminated the cost of storage as far as eBooks are concerned, so it doesn't matter if any given book sells well or even at all, in the round the total sales of data over the internet creates the wealth.

Which is why Amazon are pushing the KDP Select program again.  Like all Amazon self published authors I've just received my monthly eNewsletter pushing the program heavily.  Put it this way, if Amazon hadn't decided to incentivise KDP Select then they could have topped the $100 million profit.  On the face of it, KDP Select is pitched as a way of rewarding Amazon Prime customers, itself a vehicle to monopolise the online selling market.  But if it was just that, then Amazon wouldn't need to insist on exclusivity of sales, a concept that is pretty much illegal in most industries.

I worry about the day when Amazon have driven all the other major players off the planet - and Jeff is investing in space flight technology as well, so just being off the planet may not be sufficient in years to come - then how will that affect consumers?  To Amazon, choice is about being able to buy virtually anything through them.  To me, choice is much broader, it's about having different sellers available to pitch their wares.  I can make my purchasing decisions based on price or on service, or on quality.  Or on a thousand different parameters, some tangible, others less so.

Like most of you I buy from Amazon, including eBooks.  But I try to ensure that I don't become a dedicated funding line to Jeff and his empire.  Apart from my purchasing choices I actively resist the KDP Select program.  OK, my attempt to bring Amazon to its eBook knees a little while ago didn't result in a revolution, but did create enough interest to become my fifth most read blog entry ever almost overnight - if you haven't read it, or shared it with someone who might be of a like mind then you can access it here.


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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!



Wednesday 30 January 2013

Parallel Lives Chapter 52


Martin and Jack had assumed discrete stand-off positions, surveying each other disdainfully as the inquest proceedings began. As Sam and Jim flew into the hall the whole room, including the Coroner, Martin and Jack, turned to see what the commotion was. The constable who had intervened several minutes earlier rolled his eyes as he realised he probably had another situation to calm down.
The Coroner, half sat as the door swung open, paused and waited for the two men to stop moving, his eyes trained on the same point as everyone else’s. Sam and Jim stopped, sweeping around to see thirty five pairs of eyes looking at them.
‘I would appreciate it if you would sit down and keep quiet, gentlemen,’ said Alfred Makeson, nodding to the querulous look from the constable. Muttering apologies, they slipped back into their seats where Martin sat, his face like thunder. As they settled down, both the Coroner and Martin spoke together, the former into a microphone, the other into Sam’s ear. The Coroner halted his delivery and stared at the late arrivals again, showing his displeasure. Martin, chastened, offered his apology and started to consider exit strategies.
As the Coroner resumed his opening phrases he was further disturbed by the hall door opening. He sighed deeply.
‘Please enter and sit down, Mr Parkinson, hopefully you are the last person to enter this inquest late,’ he said, his teeth bared as he spoke. Again he paused to allow Alan time to find his seat and was about to resume speaking when the hall door opened again. For the third time the entire congregation of the hall turned to the door and watched as Karen slipped quietly into her seat.


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Copyright Ray Sullivan 2011


The characters, places and events described in this novel are fictitious and any resemblance to persons, places or events, past or present, is coincidence.  All rights reserved

Parallel Lives is published in paperback and as an eBook


I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me


Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Tuesday 29 January 2013

Google on track to get your data

When you Google for something - say you are interested in getting some new pillows so you type 'pillow' in the search engine - you start a chain of events that tracks where you go once Google return the list of sponsored and ranked results.  You open one or two interesting links to pillow suppliers and navigate around the sites.  You like the prices on one and in a few clicks you are the proud purchaser of four pillows, a duvet and an audit trail to die for.

Because Google has more than a passing interest in how well you sleep, if they can prove that their search engine led to your purchase then they can pull down some funding from the retailer.  We're talking about a $3 billion a year pay-check for Google here, so this isn't chicken feed.

Making a causal link between your search and your eventual purchase is relatively easy if allowed access to your browser - Google are adamant that the data they track does not include your personal information, so you can sleep tight on your new pillows, under your cosy duvet in the knowledge that you are an anonymous cash cow for them.

And don't forget that one of the pre-eminent browsers in use today is Google Chrome, so tracking that data should be a bit of a home run for these guys.  Why do you think they give it away?  As a non-scientific measure of how well used Chrome is, I've checked on my stats for this blog and in the 18 months or so since I started in earnest 34% of page hits have been via Chrome, just ahead of the old industry leader Internet Explorer.

Not everybody thinks Google are being entirely honest about how they use your data.  Last year Google were fined over $22 million for allegedly by-passing security in Apple's Safari browser and it looks like a similar legal challenge is being launched in the UK, with the announcement being made, with deliberate irony, on Data Privacy Day yesterday.  I discussed data Privacy Day last year on this blog here.

Using my unscientific measure I note that about 5% of page views have been via Safari, which sounds like this blog doesn't appeal to Apple readers as much as Apple sales would suggest - but then again, I do take the odd pop at Apple so maybe that's justified.  I can't help it if Apple fans are thin skinned. The split between Google and Apple surfers according to StatCounter, a company that uses more than one blog to measure with, puts Chrome at over 36% and Safari at nearly 8% so my method isn't too unreliable it seems.

Of course, many iPad users will have Chrome loaded as well, so they'll be making it easier for Google to to get richer while they look for stuff.  I don't have an issue with Google, or anyone else, making a living out of pointing me in the direction of data I'd struggle to find otherwise but I guess I'd like them to respect my privacy while they're at it.

I've said my bit.  I'm going to sleep on it now.


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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!


Monday 28 January 2013

Parallel Lives chapter 51


Alan drew up short before the entrance door. He watched the two men scan left and right and knew right off that somehow Karen had managed to disappear along with John and the other man. He determined to slow down the searchers as much as he could afford, given that the inquest was about to commence. He walked forward steadily.
‘Everything alright guys?’ he asked. The two men spun around, both trying to work out if they should know this person. Sam recognised the voice as the man who had been challenging him inside, and he felt sure he knew the voice from elsewhere. He hoped to hell it wasn’t one of his old patients.
‘You didn’t see which way the three people went, by any chance,’ asked Sam, scrutinising the face as it came out of shadow, suppressing his instincts which told him this man was not a complete stranger. Alan stepped out calmly, slowly surveying the street.
‘Nope, I think they left through this door, in fact I know they did. I assumed they would be outside here. Maybe they’re still in the hall, there were a lot of people milling around,’ he suggested, knowing full well that they had left the hall and not returned.
Jim looked around one last time before coming to the conclusion that the three couldn’t have reached the entrance and that the stranger might just be right.
‘We’ll need to check back inside,’ he said, pulling Sam’s arm. Sam shrugged the grip off, recently healed bruises smarting. Then it hit him. That was where he knew the voice from, the car parked outside Fylingdales, the one that had been moved on. He hadn’t heard any clear words that night, but the inflection was unmistakable. This man was stalling him, diverting him. He knew Martin would go mad, would fly off the handle as soon as he knew, would blame him and conspire to exclude him from the project once and for all. Sam pushed Alan off his feet as he ran back into the hall.


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Copyright Ray Sullivan 2011


The characters, places and events described in this novel are fictitious and any resemblance to persons, places or events, past or present, is coincidence.  All rights reserved

Parallel Lives is published in paperback and as an eBook


I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me


Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Sunday 27 January 2013

Apple Puts Its Foot In It

I think it is fair to say that the Apple lot are an inventive crowd.  Most tech companies seem to be on one side of the form or function divide but Apple consistently appear to successfully straddle both areas.  So they produce products that look great, handle superbly and work efficiently - well, perhaps we'll put iOS 6 and the mapping saga to one side for now.

Like all such companies they patent their ideas as they get them, whether they intend using the ideas or not.  The timing may not be right or they may not even know how they intend to make the idea work, but lodging a patent establishes their pole in the sand - this is their idea.

And once a patent is established companies such as Apple defend the right to own the idea vigorously - just look at the shenanigans we witnessed as Apple dragged Samsung around the courts last year over their ideas ranging from rectangular shapes with rounded corners (or butter dishes as we used to call them) to modelling the Newtonian effects on virtual images when they reach the last page on an iPhone.

Now it appears they have patented an idea that potentially solves the age old problem of deciding when to buy a new pair of shoes.  At the risk of sounding sexist I suspect the patent is directed at males - the females in my life never seem to need any prompts to buy shoes.  Now blokes, we tend to buy a new pair of shoes when the old pair is worn out.

That's where the new patent comes in.  Apple are suggesting that sensors are embedded in the soles of shoes - their patent clearly targets the heel but in good patent format they are suggesting anywhere in the sole will do, they clearly don't want some Smart Alec pinching their idea and patenting the same idea only using the toe cap area.  The sensor monitors the amount of flexing the shoe undertakes, beams the data to the ever present iPhone or iPad where an app applies a bit of calculus to the whole shebang and, just before the shoes fall apart, the owner is prompted to pop along to the shops to buy another pair.



It beats looking at your shoes or remembering to notice if water keeps entering from the underside.

Before anyone accuses me of poking fun at Apple let me say that I think it is a really good idea.  Guys are notoriously bad at recognising the warning signs that their shoes are about to disintegrate as any woman will attest.  In fact I don't think I've initiated a shoe buying trip in nearly thirty years as my wife always lets me know my shoes are about to fall apart before I notice the problem.

So what Apple are really suggesting is that they can replace wives. Or more realistically, they are suggesting ways to free up our wives' time so that they can do something  more useful.  So although the patent is clearly aimed at mens' shoes, it's really targeting at saving women time.  Which is the kind of thing that Apple are really good at, so the patent does make sense.

Which means my wife will now have more time to notice if my hat is wearing out before I feel water running on my head.  Of course, if anyone wants to take me up on my own patent, one for predicting when one needs to buy a new hat (moisture sensor under the fabric) then that would really give my wife some free time.


---------------------------------------------------------------------

I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Friday 25 January 2013

Parallel Lives chapter 50


Jim bundled out into the bright, cold, late morning light. He had tried not to make his act of following too obvious or rushed, attempting to sidle out unnoticed. Consequently he estimated the three people would be about thirty seconds ahead of him, but moving far slower than he was. As he pulled up he looked left and right, rocking his head to view past the few pedestrians on the pavement. Across the road the car park was empty of people, just rows of haphazardly parked cars. An uneasy feeling washed through his stomach as he realised that the trio were nowhere to be seen.
As Sam flew out of the entrance he was greeted by the ginger-haired Sergeant scouring the road in all directions.
‘Which way?’ he asked, joining in the search.
‘Dunno, I’ve only just gotten out here myself. I thought they would be stood by this door,’ replied Jim. Sam stared hard to his right.
‘Were there any vehicles pulling away, when you came out?’ he asked. Jim thought hard, trying to remember exactly what he had seen and heard.
‘Not that I can remember, but I can’t rule it out,’ he replied.
‘Balls,’ exclaimed Sam, realising that somehow they had lost the three people last seen walking slowly to the exit.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Copyright Ray Sullivan 2011


The characters, places and events described in this novel are fictitious and any resemblance to persons, places or events, past or present, is coincidence.  All rights reserved

Parallel Lives is published in paperback and as an eBook


I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me


Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Thursday 24 January 2013

Why Apple Shares Fell

Four months ago, Apple shares stood at over $700.  Today they sit at about $460, one heck of a drop. Given they've sold more iPhones in the last quarter than in any previous quarter that seems a little mean.  It's affecting their suppliers, too, including Samsung who spend half their time defending themselves in court against Apple.  Perhaps Apple have found the way to wipe the smile of Samsung's face?

Related stories - How many lawyers does it take to design a phone?,  Apple Samsung battle reconmences,     Apple case weakens

But all of this is unlikely to be the reason the shares fell.  Litigation aside, Apple have been extremely industrious the last quarter in introducing the new iPhone and the iPad mini.  Both have sold well, unfortunately not well enough to satisfy the money merchants but better than most normal people might expect in such a tough economy.

What won't have helped would have been the problems associated with the latest incarnation of their iOS, especially the mapping app that didn't work.

Related stories: Apple told to get lost, Apple to buy Tom Tom

However it's market expectations that they have fallen foul of, something I suggested semi-mockingly in a couple of posts (OK, I was actually taking the p*ss about the obsession with queues forming for new Apple products that actually became accurate, but mainly because Apple decided to market the iPad mini on the internet so aggressively that it likely affected their Apple Store sales).

Related Stories: Apple queues 'disappointing' say analysts, Apple and Gap to merge

And no, I don't think bloggers taking the micky out of Apple influenced the market.  Not much, anyway.

The real reason the share price is now a third lower than it was four months ago is twofold.

First, the price four months ago was too high.  I said that when it started falling - see Apple shares dive south

Second, Apple products are too expensive.  Sure they're selling, even breaking records, but the rate of increase in sales is slowing to a point that the money people recognise as a change in direction.  In calculus we call this the point of inflexion, where a curve changes direction on an axis.  Next quarter they will sell less than before.  Their competitors are catching up rapidly, the tablet computer is no longer a unique offering and the Apple customer base is starting to look static compared to Android.

The share price will sort itself out, so no offers of advice needed there (apart from think carefully before buying, but probably they are close to the right number now).  Apple need to look at dropping the price of its premium products if it wants to attract more new customers to the fold, otherwise Android based products will mop up new customers instead.  Selling the iPad Mini was a brave move as it allowed access to Apple for less than the standard iPad, but it is still a significantly more expensive item than its Android competitors.

My guess is that the rumoured cheaper iPhones will arrive this quarter along with cheaper full sized iPads by summer.  Let's wait and see.

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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Wednesday 23 January 2013

Parallel Lives chapter 49


Alfred Makeson stood looking out of the ante room’s window which overlooked the car park.
‘I’m not concerned that you felt the need to change the report, even at the late stage of proceedings. Well, that’s not strictly correct, I do not enjoy late changes in these matters. I would prefer that any substantial changes to your formal submission be made more timely, or if that is unavoidable then I would prefer that you advised my office that there is to be a revision. I was sorely tempted to postpone this inquest when I read your revised report, but I am extremely conscious that the family of the man who lost his life will have steeled themselves for this day.’ Alan felt he ought to speak.
‘I didn’t think the general thrust of the report had changed that much,’ he said lamely.
Alan had a rough plan that involved allowing himself to be hauled over the coals, but his instinct was to react enough to make it look as though he hadn’t realised that the change in report would cause waves.
‘Hadn’t changed? The whole thrust is different. At first look it reads as though the list of witnesses called forward is inadequate, but then, buried deep inside the report, it transpires that there isn’t anything relevant for half of the people called to say. If it wasn’t for the police report, especially the supporting testimony from SOCO which broadly supports your eventual conclusions, I would have been looking for criminal enquiries to be underway,’ ranted Makeson. He leaned forward on the desk that separated him and Alan. ‘As it is, I hope to call only a few witnesses, including yourself. Can I rely on you sticking to the facts and avoiding deviating from the most recent version of your report?’ Alan nodded, recognising that he had gotten off lightly. Makeson shuffled some papers that had been lying loosely on the table and Alan took that as a cue to leave. As he was opening the door to go, Alfred Makeson fired one last shot.
‘I hope you have the decency to let me know what your reason was some day, Mr Parkinson. I know enough about your work to realise that this change in report to be out of character,’ he said, holding his stare on Alan’s.
*
Outside, Alan sighed relief. It had been easier than he expected, but he wondered if he would ever be able to start to explain any of the events of the last few weeks to the Coroner. He decided his next step was to see if Makeson had bothered to strike any of the witnesses previously called off the formal list, in light of his preceding statement. Making his way to the main hall area where the officials and members of the public were gathering, Alan scoured the heads of the assembled people in an attempt to locate the Coroner’s assistant, who had wandered away from the desk parked outside the ante room. He found him busy arranging the seating at the front and laying out the relevant documentation and rapidly ascertained that there hadn’t been any change formally, but there wasn’t any expectation of calling John Staples, amongst others. Jack would be called, of course, as would Alan himself but it left an opportunity that had been considered. The only issue was going to be separating John from his escorts, and that was something that hadn’t been thought through anywhere deeply enough for Alan’s peace of mind.
Looking around the hall Alan saw that Jack and Karen had both sat, but in different areas. Jack was amongst the group of people who had been asked to come as potential witnesses, a group that included John Staples, Jack’s boss and a couple of the company directors. Immediately behind Staples was the man that Alan had followed to Fylingdales that cold, dank November evening, along with a ginger haired youngish man who looked extremely uncomfortable on the folding seating placed on the wooden floor. Karen didn’t seem to have tried to get close to Staples, instead was sat with a sparse group of spectators halfway down the hall, sat near the aisle. Jack thought about talking to Karen, but decided that she must have some reason for sitting where she had. Probably, he thought, it was to do with Jackson. She had had that meeting with him and had admitted that he gave her the creeps. As Jack had ended up, by design or otherwise, several seats from John it looked as though it was up to Alan to try and make contact.
Walking over to the area that was marked as seating for witnesses, Alan carefully avoided looking at Jack as he slid into the seat immediately to the right of John. He nodded politely and muttered a quiet ‘good morning’ as he sat, placing his official card calling him to the inquest on the seat to his right and sliding his briefcase under the folding chair. Pausing for a few seconds while he pretended to search his pockets, Alan viewed John out of the corner of his eye. Staples hadn’t reacted, moved or spoken when Alan arrived and now he just stared straight ahead as if in a daydream. Alan leaned close to the man who had dominated his life over the past few weeks, pretending not to notice the lack of reaction.
‘Excuse me, do you have a pen I can borrow? I seem to have forgotten to bring mine,’ he asked. He looked hard into John Staple’s eyes, observing a total lack of recognition; the man was wholly unaware of his surroundings, as if drugged. Alan decided to improvise, probably the most robust of the tactics he and Jack had discussed. He put his arm around John Staple’s shoulder while enquiring over-loudly about John’s well being.
‘Are you alright, sir?’ he asked while pushing John forward. Alan had assumed that John Staples would fall forward easily, based on the belief that he was drugged to the eyeballs, and was surprised to find the man difficult to move. He called across to Jack, who had turned when he heard the commotion a few seats down. ‘Jack, can you give a hand? I think this man needs fresh air, he’s looking quite unwell,’ he asked, starting to force the now leaning man to a semi-standing position. Jack reached across as he started to stand, looking directly into the eyes of the man that he had watched enter the foyer of the factory recently to pick up a notebook. Jackson was half stood himself, leaning and pulling John Staples back towards his seat.
‘Let me look, I’m a Doctor,’ Sam announced, knowing that the public were all too ready to pass on the responsibility for first aid to anybody claiming medical expertise. Jack and Alan hesitated, neither knowing if now was the time to show their hand. Both wondered if they should call Jackson’s bluff, leaving the other’s cover in place. The decision was taken out of their hands when Karen spoke.
‘Not of medicine, though, Doctor Jackson,’ she said, effectively stopping the melee that was forming around the small group of people. Karen had watched the events with close interest and had started to move towards John as soon as Alan put his arm on his shoulder. Sam was momentarily stunned by the statement and the sudden appearance of 'that' woman again.
‘Come on John, let’s get some air,’ she said, pulling John fully up and slipping one of his arms over her shoulder. Jack took the other arm in the same manner and together they started to walk John round the front of the seats. Jack wondered exactly what they were to do if and when they reached the main entrance, it was hardly the way to make a rapid exit. There was panicked movements from the row containing Sam Jackson, Martin and Jim Forsythe as they scrambled to exit their own row, scattering the front row seats as they went. Martin thrust one of the seats forward and stumbled out of the gap created, squaring up to the two men and one woman. Jim held back, not understanding or liking what he was seeing. Sam slowed down but continued to move towards the group, while other members of the public began to take a close interest in the events.
‘Will you let me take this man outside for some air?’ asked Jack in as reasonable a tone as he could muster. Martin stood square in front, clearly blocking any progress. A constable in uniform, having arrived as the activity had begun, intervened.
‘What’s the matter here?’ he asked, casting a wary eye over all of the persons gathered around. Jack pitched in.
‘This man’s not well, I’m trying to take him outside for some air,’ he said, then added, ‘this man is preventing me from helping him.’ Martin stood back a pace, weighing up the situation. He had guessed who Jack was from his own research, and hadn’t been surprised when he sat close to Staples. The woman he remembered from his meeting at Jackson’s office, but she had wrong footed him by intervening when she did. The policeman, Martin assumed, was genuine and represented a risk he couldn’t afford to take.
‘I was trying to assist, he looks unstable. I don’t know why, but this man seemed to take exception,’ he said. The constable looked at both men and decided that although the explanation seemed reasonable there was too much tension between the men to allow them to continue. He looked at the man supported between one of the men and the woman. He agreed the man looked peaky, but otherwise not too bad. At first glance he had assumed the man to be a drug addict, recognising the all too familiar glazed look in his eyes, but at his second look the man seemed to be taking an interest in his surroundings. Probably become too warm and started to faint, decided the policeman, and was now beginning to feel the benefit of moving around. He was increasingly aware of the gathering group of people taking an interest and the continued stand-off body language of both men and decided he needed to exclude both of them from the situation. A member of the public allowed him the opportunity to separate the disputing couple from the man needing fresh air.
‘How about I take this man outside while you two sort your differences out?’ asked a voice from the sidelines. Martin, Jack and the constable looked at the man, all equally surprised. To Jack’s greater surprise, Martin conceded that it would be a sensible idea.
‘I don’t know why, but we seem to be at cross purposes here,’ he said. Karen interjected, directing her response to the man who had made the suggestion.
‘Why don’t you take his other arm and leave these two to argue,’ she said, indicating Jack and Martin with her free hand. The constable nodded in agreement and guided the two men to one side as Karen and the other man carefully walked John out of the hall. Jack couldn't understand what Karen was up to, but he recognised the tone of her voice and knew that she intended him to back off. Why Martin hadn't argued he couldn't say, but there it was. Looking around he noticed that Alan had button-holed Sam Jackson, preventing him from following the three people, although he saw the ginger haired man follow them. The policeman was intent on ensuring that Jack and the short man didn’t interfere any more and both were made to take their seats which had been re-arranged by those members of the public who had gathered around a minute or two earlier.
Sam Jackson watched as John Staples disappeared through the door, trying to extricate himself from the man posing pointless questions. If it wasn't for the woman, Karen Howells, he wouldn’t have been bothered by the temporary exit, especially as the airforce Sergeant was keeping close to him. He turned to Alan angrily.
‘I don’t care about your opinion, I am sufficiently medically qualified to assist in cases requiring first aid, and I resent your interference,’ he responded to Alan’s point that he shouldn’t be passing himself off as a medical doctor so readily. Alan wasn’t bothered how the man represented himself, he was just giving Karen an opportunity to try and get John away, although he couldn’t see how she intended to achieve it, especially as one of the entourage had clearly followed them outside. Sam moved towards the exit, determining to ignore any further debate, followed by Alan quickening his pace.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Copyright Ray Sullivan 2011


The characters, places and events described in this novel are fictitious and any resemblance to persons, places or events, past or present, is coincidence.  All rights reserved

Parallel Lives is published in paperback and as an eBook


I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me


Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Tuesday 22 January 2013

To Catch a Spy - Early

Anyone brought up on a diet of John Le Carre novels will have a reasonable idea of how spies were recruited in the UK in the fifties.  In fact anyone reading about the Burgess and Maclean recruitment into both the British Secret Service and the employ of the Soviet Union - talk about moonlighting - will realise that Le Carre actually knew a thing or two.

But Burgess and Maclean, in fact the whole Cambridge Five, showed that the concept of recruiting from the two most elite universities in the UK via the discrete tap on the shoulder was a faulted system.  Sure the world of espionage and counter-espionage needs bright cookies, but those two universities also seem to engender a certain degree of self assuredness that probably distorted the eventual employer.

And while it is fair to say that the students at Oxford and Cambridge have always tended to be amongst the brightest in the country, they haven't had the absolute monopoly on bright students.

However intellectual capability is one of the facets of modern intelligence that is still valued.  Unlike the almost super hero skills touted by Ian Fleming's James Bond and the socially inept anti heroes featured in Le Carre novels, the reality of counter-espionage is the ability to analyse seemingly huge amounts of data and identify trends and clues distributed randomly, finding the literal needle in the haystack.  Some computer skills  necessary then, perhaps super geek level for starters?

In the novel, The Spy Who Came In From The Cold, Le Carre had his main character, who was pretending to be a double agent for the East Germans, keep an eye out for whether the British Secret Service were ordering more paper clips than before, as that could indicate an uptick in activity.  Except he didn't call it uptick, obviously.  And of course, even if it did indicate an uptick, would that necessarily have been a useful indication to the East Germans?  It's not like we ignored them for long during the Cold War.

Today, along with all the traditional intelligence channels - information gleaned from individuals and dissected from newspapers - the intelligence services have many other forms of communication to wade through; social networks, text messaging, news channels on satellite stations and internet blogs (grief - who reads them?) for example, and much of this will be old, some will be badly recycled, a lot will be engineered to hide or divert away from the truth. The modern analyst really doesn't have the time or need to develop the skills of James Bond or the cast of Spooks, he or she is drowning in data trying to extract a semblance of the truth from it.

But of course the really sensitive stuff, the plans of an attack, the secrets that people want to keep that way, won't be in plain sight, and won't be in clear. It'll be in code, and that is where the mathematicians that have traditionally been recruited in Oxford and Cambridge come into their own.

The tap on the shoulder is long gone - if you're eligible (bright, British and of a reasonable character) then you can apply to join the British Secret Services - Such as MI5 or MI6 (actually known as the Secret Intelligence Service - SIS).  Be warned, they are picky.  But they're good and the work is probably very rewarding.

However the real code-breaking stuff takes place not in London but in a town called Cheltenham, at a location called GCHQ - yup, you can apply for a job there too .  But they aren't waiting for the brightest and the best to beat a path to their door, they're making it easier for them to identify tomorrow's code-breakers and to provide a taster for those with the ability but perhaps who may not realise that code-breaking is a real job.    They sponsor a competition aimed at British schools - overseas schools have tried to enter without luck - with the aim of pitching increasingly more difficult cyphers to be decrypted.   The uptake is accelerating - historically about 200 teams apply to take place, however this year 1600 teams have had a crack.  To be fair, only 30 of the teams managed to complete all of the levels in a competition that run for nearly two months.

Of course, most of the entrants won't want to be code-breakers.  But some will display a talent that may be missed through normal school curricula and, well, normal teenage life and these will almost certainly be earmarked for follow up.

Perhaps the tap on the shoulder when they reach Cambridge will make a come back after all?

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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Monday 21 January 2013

Parallel Lives chapter 48


Michael had sat in the car park a good five minutes before he saw Sam arrive. The car park had been quiet for the first four minutes, with no cars coming and only two leaving. Then the mid sized, middle aged, obviously family style car swept in front of him, passed the end row of cars and doubled back along the next straggling line, reversing smartly into a slot about twenty foot away from his Porsche. As the occupant, a smartly dressed thirty-something woman, climbed out, Sam passed by, oblivious to the sports car, following virtually the same route as the family car parked two spaces down. As Michael leant towards the door release handle he stopped as he saw something he hadn’t expected. The woman had locked her door, admired herself in the reflection of the driver’s window, and then checked out Sam’s car. That much hadn’t been unusual, but then she turned and, clearly from Michael’s viewing position, she pretended to lock the already locked door. And now she was walking over to him.


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Copyright Ray Sullivan 2011


The characters, places and events described in this novel are fictitious and any resemblance to persons, places or events, past or present, is coincidence.  All rights reserved

Parallel Lives is published in paperback and as an eBook


I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me


Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Sunday 20 January 2013

Shopping in the internet economy

Over the last few weeks in the UK there have been a number of high profile high street shops closing their doors, or at the least having to open the back doors to the accountants who administrate failing companies.

Some of these have been predictable and others less so.  I don't think anyone who spends more than a few minutes thinking about these things would be too surprised to hear that the latest victim of the extended financial crises, Blockbuster, is in administration.  I think the biggest surprise is that it took until 2013.

Blockbuster was a breath of fresh air for most of its short life - it took video, then DVD rental out of the local amateur market and put it on a professional footing.  But in recent years there has been a number of challenges it seems to have ignored.  First off, there is the challenge from terrestrial and extra terrestrial TV - Sky have led the field in this and forced everyone else to raise their game.  However it was the slow burn of Lovefilm from about six years ago that will have put the nail in the coffin for Blockbuster, especially once it was bought out by Amazon.

Lovefilm gets the whole package right - no fees for keeping a film longer than agreed, you just  don't get a replacement until you return it and anyway, you're paying monthly whether or not you take a film or ten.  And add to that the increasing amount of content you can download without waiting for the postie and you have a compelling reason not to bother with Blockbuster.  Clearly Blockbuster didn't take this challenge seriously, otherwise they would have set up a competing service.

Other recent victims have included Comet, a major electronic goods retailer, and HMV, probably the only large scale music and DVD retailer in the UK these days.  Both companies tried to compete with the on-line onslaught and included internet stores of their own, but ultimately they are competing against some of the most cash-rich companies in the world, not all of whom are renowned for paying their corporation taxes.  I'm not suggesting that if the likes of Amazon didn't avoid taxes then Comet and HMV would've prospered but at least one part of the playing field would have been relatively level.  The other significant loss on recent days has been Jessops, the photographic chain.  They fell foul of being the go-to place to have cameras demonstrated before we all nipped back home to buy our preference on the internet.  For that abuse of their service and expertise we have lost a valued institution.

However Amazon didn't get it all its own way in recent months as other UK retailers did buck the trend and showed growth. Significantly some of the bigger UK supermarkets, which have incidentally elbowed into Comet and HMV territory in recent years, also did well, as did UK Argos group.  The glue that holds these together is the fact that they all have significant brick and mortar stores, internet presence  and critically they have merged these together.  The supermarkets have apps that let you shop on your iPad and they will deliver to your door - Asda, the UK subsidiary of Wal-Mart also allows the customer to pick their shopping up at the store after ordering it on-line and that is proving more flexible than waiting in for a two hour time slot.  Argos will deliver large items, but their biggest success has been around their click and reserve service. Find what you want on-line and they will tell you how many of each item you have chosen is available in your local stores and will let you reserve it for free and without commitment for up to forty eight hours.  Pop along to the store at a time that suits you, quote your reservation number, pay and leave.

So what is the future?  Well, the British high street has been changing for some time and the internet is only a part of that.  I believe that we will need to expect to see most high streets less populated by shops, more leisure orientated in the future.  The high street bulging with every shop under the sun is a relatively new concept - many high street shops were originally town houses that have been converted - some may revert to their former use.  We may start to see town and city centres with spaces to sit and surf, using free WiFi, or to read a book out of the rain.  The current trend to fill empty shops with charity shops and cheapie shops isn't sustainable or desirable - let's have less shops, but ones that sell stuff that's unique, different and perhaps a little too bespoke for the likes of Amazon to muscle in on.  Keep the general store if the economy supports it - the proximity of the local supermarkets will dictate that - and tidy up the spaces in-between.

For the rest of the traders, well it seems clear that you have to embrace the internet.  But don't discount a high street presence; like Asda and Argos you can have your brick and mortar stores and your on-line store co-exist nicely.  In fact I would suggest that is the way forward.

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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Saturday 19 January 2013

I Can't Like These Facebook Scams

Even occasional users of Facebook will post the odd photo, you know, hanging off the railings after a good night out or a cracking holiday snap.  If others see the photo they might decide to push the 'Like' button to show that they have enjoyed the image.

Now and then people post humorous or shocking images, sometimes of their own creation, sometimes picked up from their own circle of friends on Facebook.  In theory all of these originated from one person's posting and are so worthy of viewing they get liked all around Facebook.  Some of them end up with large collections of 'Likes', in the hundred thousands and even the millions have been seen.

It seems that there is the potential for a bit of Facebook's equivalent  to stamp collecting going on, with people attempting to get as many 'Likes' as is possible.  It's not unlike the obsessive collecting of Twitter followers that some people seem to indulge in.  On the face of it, harmless enough, I guess.

But, like virtually everything else in the on-line world, there's a darker side.  You see, when a posting gets a lot of likes then they start being promoted by Facebook.  There's a 'Like' ranking system going on that means the most popular postings start to get a higher profile.  In a way, that makes sense, after all if three million people thought that your photo of your dog sleeping was worthy of a 'Like, then so might another several million.

You may have noticed advertisers jumping onto the 'Like' bandwagon.  They want to get to the point where their promotional postings are high up in the 'Like' charts and hopefully taking on a life of their own.  That's why you see all of these 'Click Like to be entered into a competition to win an iPad' promos.  One randomly selected 'Like' out of three or four million is worth a tax deductible iPad.

What many people don't realise is that the 'Likes' on a post are transferable. Obviously the thinly veiled bribes from corporate entities aren't going to be transferred - they are pitching to get their own product front and centre.  But if the bribe of an iPad is not enough to generate enough 'Likes' then why not engage in a bit of social engineering?  But the corporations don't need to risk being exposed at rigging Facebook; individuals will do that for them and then sell on the posting ripe for re-branding.  Here's what I think is happening.

If we're lucky someone will produce truly amusing photos, video clips, witty slogans and will post them.  They get picked up as being funny and others, ourselves included, re-post them.  A good, humorous posting may be worth a few hundred thousand 'Likes', but humour is a flaky thing.  It wanes and we all have different opinions about what is funny.

What does seem to be picking up the big numbers at the moment are the images of damaged, poor and traumatised young people, often from very poor countries, probably long dead before the post starts to circulate.  The cynical originator of the posting will suggest that pushing 'Like' is the same as offering a prayer for the poor soul(s).  Bump up the 'Like' count and send it off around a suitably large circle of Facebook users and it should get a life of its own.  Wait until it gets into the millions of 'Likes' then wham! Sell it on to an advertiser who can change the post for one that fits their product range and viola! they are promoted up the Facebook charts.  More visibility for their products.

My view is that this is a cynical abuse of images that shouldn't be encouraged.  If you believe in the power of prayer, why not just say one and leave the 'Like' button alone.  If you don't, what the heck are you hoping to achieve by pushing the 'Like' button anyway?  I accept that pushing the 'Like' button doesn't cost you or me anything, at least not directly, and it's fair to say that whoever perpetuates these scams don't care so it's not like our integrity is at risk.  It's just that some people are cynically using you and me to make money and don't have the honesty to just ask.

If you enjoy this posting you can find a link to it on my Facebook page - open to anyone who wants to follow me on FB - if you 'Like' it, then perhaps we can build up a large amount of 'Likes'.  And perhaps just leave it at that.

Related Post: Don't Forget, Facebook

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I can be followed on Twitter - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!