How To Judge An Industry By Its Cover

I caught a segment on the BBC programme 'The One Show' on Tuesday about book covers - you may be able to watch the segment on the BBC iPlayer if you are interested.  Like most of the segments on this programme the subject matter was presented well but was ultimately shallow, such is the nature of a magazine style TV programme.

Inevitably the focus was on the conventional book industry and discussed how publishers make us choose their books over others - of course I'm interested as I realise the well entrenched belief that we tend to judge books initially by their covers is essentially true.  And it also reflects how people browse eBooks, I would suggest.  So that made the segment worth the time investment even if ultimately I don't think they actually said anything earth shattering or revealing.

Just as the segment was grinding to a halt the interviewer slipped in a sneaky question to an unsuspecting representative of, I seem to recall, Bloomsbury. The question was about whether all the skill needed to produce a good book cover is going to die off with the advent of eBooks.  Or something like that, it slipped in without any warning and I think it caught the publisher's rep off guard because there wasn't any natural reason for the question to slip in other than curiosity.

Anyway, said representative was duly defensive about the industry that feeds and clothes his family, for some unexplained reason.  After nearly choking on a creme de menthe he spluttered that there will always be books and, after recovering he added that 'they said TV would spell the end of Cinema'.  At that point the interview moved into wrap up and the programme moved on.

I thought he'd made a valid point for a while - to be fair there was some validity in what he'd said - but then I rationalised a bit more.  TV was touted to destroy cinema and in fact it very nearly did - there are whole swathes of the cinema industry that no longer exist.  After a period of decline cinema did reinvent itself - it produced fewer, bigger productions, the like that TV couldn't afford to produce.  So it survived, but it had to change to do so.

So it will be with books.  If we take the unreasonable view that eBook reading technology, effectively tablet computing, stands still then on current trends there will be a few books that will never work well electronically.  But most books are as good in electronic format as in print.  I know there is a sentimentality about books that transcends all the logic about cutting down perfectly healthy trees, logging, pulping, bleaching, printing, binding, shipping and finally remaindering and repulping them, a sentimentality helped by the eBook industry trying to price eBooks as if all the costs associated with real books needed to be applied to eBooks.  Some books, though, benefit from the print format - generally the large format coffee table books that actually few people own many of and even fewer read. However, the technology won't stand still, so even those books will, in time, be good candidates for converting to eBooks.

The other issue with the industry rep's comparison is that TV is arguably a poorer medium compared to film - or at least it was until high definition large screen TVs became affordable.  There still does appear to be an immersive quality to cinema that TV doesn't cut yet, but that differential is being eroded all the time.  There isn't really a comparable differential between print and eBooks - many eReaders and tablets have similar tactile qualities to books and generally those who complain that eReaders and tablets are inferior reading media are not generally found to have tried eReaders.  Once they do, the conversion rate is staggering.

So, do try to catch the segment using iPlayer but don't expect to learn a great deal about book cover design. But if you catch the programme you may learn quite a bit about the print industry fears.

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How Big is the Tablet Market?

Given that three years ago the tablet market was a euphemism for drug dealing, it's remarkable that we now regard the iPad, Kindle Fire and Nexus tablets as part of the technical equipment furniture.  Thanks to Amazon's notorious reluctance to talk numbers even with shareholders  - how irritating that must be - we don't know how many Kindle Fires have been sold but we do know it must be a few by the amount we see turning up in public.  However we do know that Apple have shifted over 100 million iPads of various designs so that sets the baseline down.  Various industry estimates suggest that there are about 140 million tablets in use today worldwide and recent figures suggest that between Apple, Amazon and Google they hope to shift between 15 and 30 million units before Christmas day.  Looking at the adverts on TV and the conversations I seem to drift into they are probably correct.

My instinct is that some of these purchases are going to be at the expense of dedicated eReaders, another market that didn't exist until relatively recently and one that seems about to disappear at the very point that it matures.  Many potential eReader customers are eyeing the lower cost tablets and deciding that the extra utility and marginal extra cost is worth sacrificing the battery life and sunlight reading benefits for.  I've said on several occasions that eReaders will sell well this year, after all there are some real good budget models available for cash strapped consumers to buy, but this will be their peak.  From January, it'll be tablets we'll see being read on the bus and tube.

So how big is this market?  One analyst has recently suggested that it is already at saturation point based on the contention that there are only so many people prepared to use a tablet in lieu of a conventional computer. I disagree, but I see where he was coming from.  You see, tablets are not a replacement for laptops, not yet.  Sure you can type on an iPad or Nexus, I've written blog entries on mine before now, but for most of my writing, either this blog or my novel writing, I turn to my trusty laptop with MS Word loaded on.  When I balance the home accounts I don't try and do that on an iPad, I need Excel.  And if I want to print something off, regardless of where it came from, how it originated, I don't even consider the Nexus.

But these are technological hurdles that will be overcome in the next couple of years and it isn't the case that the tablets are short of capability - email is a breeze, watching movies, all those apps, surfing the Net, jotting down notes, engaging on Twitter, abusing on Facebook - in fact most of the things we do on our laptops for  a large part of their life, only more conveniently - no long winded boot sequences for starters, always on and ready to roll.

In fact tablets and traditional computers can sit side by side and actually complement each other nicely, thank you.  It's probable that future generations of tablets will render the traditional computer redundant, but for now they not only co-exist harmoniously, they complement each other.  Which means that probably everyone who uses a computer will find a use for a tablet.  And many of those who don't generally use a  computer will still find a tablet useful - witness the growing number of silver surfers who have eschewed the use of computers who are now engaging with iPads, surfing the Net and poking each other on Facebook.  And there's evidence to suggest that kids are being given tablets for their own use by grandparents who hope they will help with the homework.  Parents know better, but hey ho.

And let's not forget the eBook market which is fast approaching parity with the print market and will overtake it in a couple of years. We may prefer to write our books on laptops, but tablets are how they will be read.

So how big is the tablet market?  Well, at least as big as the home computer market has been up to now with the addition of the reluctant pensioners and the kids who wouldn't traditionally have been given their own PC.  That's one big market that is going to keep on growing through 2013 and probably won't stabilise until 2014 or beyond.

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Apple Apologises - Eventually

It can't have missed your notice that Apple and Samsung have been falling out with each other recently.  I blogged a week or so ago about the various court cases they have had (and I understand one or a thousand others may have mentioned it too).

the upshot is that the Korean courts think both companies are pretty much as bad as each other for copying ideas, the US courts (including 12 American jurors) thought that the American company Apple was great and wronged by the non-American company Samsung, awarding costs of $1 billion.  The UK courts agreed that Apple was cooler than Samsung, but that was all.  They ruled that Apple had been bad-mouthing their competitor and insisted that Apple place the following statement on their UK website and post it in a number of UK newspapers.

On 9th July 2012 the High Court of Justice of England and Wales ruled that Samsung Electronic (UK) Limited's Galaxy Tablet Computer, namely the Galaxy Tab 10.1, Tab 8.9 and Tab 7.7 do not infringe Apple's registered design No. 0000181607-0001. A copy of the full judgment of the High court is available on the following link www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Patents/2012/1882.html. That Judgment has effect throughout the European Union and was upheld by the Court of Appeal on 18 October 2012. A copy of the Court of Appeal's judgment is available on the following link www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2012/1339.html. There is no injunction in respect of the registered design in force anywhere in Europe.

Apple appealed the decision but was over-ruled.  However they posted a modified version of the ruling that went like this:

Samsung / Apple UK judgment

On 9th July 2012 the High Court of Justice of England and Wales ruled that Samsung Electronic (UK) Limited's Galaxy Tablet Computer, namely the Galaxy Tab 10.1, Tab 8.9 and Tab 7.7 do not infringe Apple's registered design No. 0000181607-0001. A copy of the full judgment of the High court is available on the following linkwww.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Patents/2012/1882.html.

In the ruling, the judge made several important points comparing the designs of the Apple and Samsung products:

"The extreme simplicity of the Apple design is striking. Overall it has undecorated flat surfaces with a plate of glass on the front all the way out to a very thin rim and a blank back. There is a crisp edge around the rim and a combination of curves, both at the corners and the sides. The design looks like an object the informed user would want to pick up and hold. It is an understated, smooth and simple product. It is a cool design."

"The informed user's overall impression of each of the Samsung Galaxy Tablets is the following. From the front they belong to the family which includes the Apple design; but the Samsung products are very thin, almost insubstantial members of that family with unusual details on the back. They do not have the same understated and extreme simplicity which is possessed by the Apple design. They are not as cool."

That Judgment has effect throughout the European Union and was upheld by the Court of Appeal on 18 October 2012. A copy of the Court of Appeal’s judgment is available on the following link www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2012/1339.html. There is no injunction in respect of the registered design in force anywhere in Europe.

However, in a case tried in Germany regarding the same patent, the court found that Samsung engaged in unfair competition by copying the iPad design. A U.S. jury also found Samsung guilty of infringing on Apple's design and utility patents, awarding over one billion U.S. dollars in damages to Apple Inc. So while the U.K. court did not find Samsung guilty of infringement, other courts have recognized that in the course of creating its Galaxy tablet, Samsung willfully copied Apple's far more popular iPad.

The UK courts, understandably, had a dicky fit over this statement, which effectively appears to attempt to divert the reader away from the judgement.  It probably implies that the UK courts were wrong, seeing as other courts appear to have differed in opinion.  Given that Apple started the whole issue by bringing Samsung to a UK court they felt that Apple hadn't been listening to them, so the courts hauled the Apple lawyers back in and gave them a fair old dressing down.  Consequently the original statement, as directed by the UK courts, has now replaced the modified statement.

Is this just a semantic spat?  Will it convert people who may have been swayed by the court case and any statements made before or during to consider Samsung devices?  I doubt it; in fact, most of us just watch these arguments going on out of curiosity and then buy whatever we were going to buy anyway.  I live in a household where Apple and Android devices (admittedly not Samsung badged, but possibly manufactured) live harmoniously side-by-side and I'm sure I'm not the only one.  The only real opinion the user will have is that the net effect of all the court actions and punitive fines is going to be passed on to us eventually, and we'll still buy the device we fancy.  Even if it is an uncool Samsung device.

But the real problem for Apple is that Samsung are probably going to go back to the US courts and make the not unreasonable challenge to their $1 billion charge.  They will probably argue that as Apple had recourse to one more layer of judiciary in the UK, the UK Supreme Court, but clearly chose to place the retraction on their website and in several newspapers instead, it demonstrates that they did not believe they had an absolutely correct argument regarding infringements.  That action alone should compel the US courts to reconsider their previous judgement.  Hopefully both companies will be told to go away, stop wasting court time and the consumer might find that the next generation of Apple and Samsung devices are a little bit more affordable than they might have been.

Here's hoping.

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I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!

Microsoft Scratch the Surface

What a week.  Launches from Apple for the much hyped iPad mini, Amazon with a Fire in its belly and Google next to Nexus with excitement.

And then there's the Microsoft Surface tablet.  It was described by Microsoft President Steven Sinofsky as the best tablet he's ever used, the best laptop he's ever used.  To be fair, given his share exposure to Microsoft he's hardly the least biased person to comment and anyway, what's he been doing using other tablets?  He also pointed out that this was a monumental launch for Microsoft, up there with the top three which included, apparently, Windows 95 and two others.  I was driving and I didn't want to hear him claim Windows ME as being up there too, in case the shock caused me to crash, so I missed the other two.  To his credit, Windows 95 was a game changer in its day.  ME was probably the worst days' work MS ever did - I assume they only spent a day on it!  I spent two years regretting it.

So, is the Surface going to change the game?  Well, it does have a number of strong selling points, most notably being that it features a compatible version of MS Office.  You can read Office documents on your iPad and Nexus tablets, but creating a Word document from scratch is a bit of a problem.  With a bit of luck MS will have also decided on how to get documents to print from the Surface as well - I don't know if they have but I've sure struggled for hours with the iPad.  And before you email links to the many Apps that claim to make it a print friendly device please include some testimony about your own personal experience as I feel I've bankrolled a whole industry and still have to email documents to my PC to print them off.

 The critical point about the Surface is probably the price - MS are coming in way late and are up against a lot of stiff competition.  According to the UK Microsoft Store the basic Tablet retails for just under £400, and when I say just under don't expect any folding change.  This does give you a 32GB tablet which, in most real worlds is a great starting point.  But we're talking Microsoft here and they do have the reputation of sucking all the system resources up in a blink of an eye.  I'll wait until someone has had a chance to really test it in the real world before I decide if 32 GB is usable or not.

If you want the much vaunted clip on keyboard then expect to fork out an extra £80.  To put that into context, you can get Bluetooth keyboards for the iPad for a quarter of that price - suer they're no brand products but I've used one and they seem pretty good to me.  If you buy your Surface without the keyboard (or touch cover as they insist of calling it) then the purchase price is £100 for the tacky white model or £110 for the sexier black variety.  So, if you are buying a Surface, buy the keyboard with it, I guess.

Looking at the spec sheet it does include some useful standard items, such as Bluetooth to drive mice etc.  Front and rear facing cameras are there to let you Skype (or video-conference if you're trying to get the boss to authorise one of these) and of course to take photos.  Apparently the rear camera is angled so that it points straight when the device is set on the built in stand - I'm not sure how that affects hand held photography.  Perhaps photos of feet will be a giveaway trait.  Or the ceiling, I'm trying to get my head around this one.

Will it succeed?  Don't know, but I reckon it's going to be an uphill struggle given the lead Apple and Google have.  The business machine angle is Microsoft's best chance, and only time will tell if that has worked.  I don't think they will get many bites at this - er - apple before they lose the race.  We need a tablet that uses Office documents without hoop jumping, that interfaces with our work intranets effortlessly and runs our legacy business applications.  If the Surface does this then it may, just, be a success.


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I can be followed on Twitter too - @RayASullivan
or on Facebook - use raysullivan.novels@yahoo.com to find me

Why not take a look at my books and read up on my Biog here

Want to see what B L O'Feld is up to?  Take a look at his website here

Worried/Interested in the secretive world of DLFs?  Take a look at this website dedicated to DLFs here, if you dare!